Uncertainty Creates August Volatility
The S&P 500 fell 1.8 % during a volatile August (Figure 1) as the Federal Reserve’s -25 basis point move on July 31 proved too hawkish versus expectations. Yields on the 10 Yr US Treasury fell 50 basis points to 1.5% in August as well.
This volatility stems from market uncertainty as we enter the latter period of the business cycle. On one hand, we have decelerating or contracting metrics (such as the August ISM Manufacturing Index at 49.1) and trade worries.
On the other hand, we have the Fed indicating its willingness to step in with lower rates.
The question is, will the Fed’s moves be enough given the continued economic deceleration and uncertainty around trade?
No one knows the answers for certain, and this drives the volatility of late.
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This market commentary was written and produced by Stableford Capital, LLC. Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested in directly. The views stated in this letter are not necessarily the opinion of any other named entity and should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
S&P 500 INDEX: The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure the performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.