Stableford Market Commentary: October 2019

Financial Graph on cityscape bacground Stableford Market Commentary October 2019

The S&P 500 increased 2% during October as investors began to believe that the economy is beginning to re-accelerate. This move off the recent October lows was propelled by diminishing fears of recession and trade wars. Recent high frequency economic survey data has recently begun to turn upward, and the US – China trade war has moved toward (at least a temporary) détente.

Stableford Market Commentary: September 2019

USA economy stock market indicator with flag stableford market commentary september 2019

After a volatile August, the S&P 500 increased 1.3% during September as fears of the global slowdown began to dissipate. The respite may be short lived however, as early October ISM surveys indicate a contraction in the manufacturing side of the economy. The key question from here is whether the contraction will spread from the relatively small manufacturing component (approximately 10%) to the much larger services side of the US economy.

Stableford Market Commentary: July 2019

Stableford Market Commentary July 2019 USA vs. China fists hitting

The S&P 500 increased 2.5% in July, but the real fireworks occurred after the Fed meeting July 31 through August 5. During that 4 day period the market was down 5.6%. Fixed Income had similar gyrations, with yields on the US 10 Yr Treasury falling 30 basis points from July 31 to 1.71% on August 5, after holding relatively stable for July

Keep Calm and Invest On … But Carefully

The complexity theory argues that in natural systems, resilience increases as the systems become more complex. But for manufactured systems, becoming complicated (like our economy and globalization) means less resilience. The summer of 2019 is chock full of threats to the stability of our economy; let’s review them and go over suggestions on how to weather these bond and stock market trends.

Stableford Capital Market Commentary: May 2019

Stableford Capital Market Commentary NY Stock Exchange Building

The S&P 500 fell 6.6% May, after topping out at an all-time high on April 30. It was up ~25% off the December 2018 lows, and 17% year to date at the high. In particular, the US economy and corporate earnings were beginning to slow. This became apparent during May as several economic indicators and economists’ models began to show the deceleration. As usual, the bond market was the first to sniff out the problem.

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