After a brutal September, the S&P 500 bounced 8% during October. With the heightened fears of the Liz Truss UK debacle in September, news could not get any worse—and it didn’t. When market sentiment and fear reach extreme levels, a constant stream of bad news is required to push indexes down further. In the absence of further unwelcome news, markets bounced. The October Market Commentary will try to help explain what is going on.
Interest rates reached levels last seen in 2010 following U.K. prime minister Liz Truss’ surprise deficit-widening budget (and associated borrowing requirements) forced bond sales by U.K. Pensions in order to meet margin calls. U.S. Treasury rates, already moving higher in September, were pushed to even higher levels as panic set in at U.K. pensions in search of liquid assets to unload quickly. The September Market Commentary will try to help explain what is going on.
Groupthink is incredibly powerful. If enough people believe something, will it come true? In the case of equity markets, yes—but only temporarily. Equity investors are slowly learning that the Fed must fulfill its inflation mandate for the first time in a generation. The Fed no longer has your back (as long as inflation persists)as it was previously. The August Market Commentary will try to help explain what is going on.
The Fed remained hawkish during the July meeting, but traders were having none of it, despite continued multi-decade highs in inflation. Yields on the US Treasury 10 Year fell 36 basis points during July as investors begin to price in an economic slowdown. Recall that the 10 Year was nearly 3.5% a month and a half ago. Bond managers have switched from inflation fear to recession fear. The July Market Commentary will try to help explain what is going on.
Continued Fed Hawkishness Drives Equities Lower and Rates Higher. In the face of rising inflation, the Fed turned increasingly hawkish, which pushed 10 Year US Treasury rates up seventeen basis points to 3.02% in June. While this was much lower than the 3.48% achieved in mid-month, the fear of continuing higher rates was enough to push equities down 8.8% in June. The June Market Commentary will walk you through the ups and downs and try to help explain what is going on.
As the summer closes, there are two news items that are expected to impact the markets. The first is the message from the federal government that they intend to taper its bond purchases. The second is the negative Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey about consumer confidence. Learn how each will likely affect the market to prepare for the coming changes.
June 2021 is ending the month on an unconvincing run as breadth diminished, even as the overall index increased. This narrowing participation strikes us as a sign of risk, as investors remain unconvinced about future strength and where rates will go. As a result, equities remain in equity-rotation limbo. Review Stableford Capital’s June Market Commentary to inform your decisions.
We are entering a decelerating growth environment which explains the relatively flat May that equities and S&P 500 experienced. Why do we find ourselves in this slow down what are the smart moves? Review Stableford Capital’s May Market Commentary to inform your decisions.
A slow-down in recent growth is inevitable. US economists predict equities will peak during the second quarter of 2021. How can you leverage a shifting market? In the Stableford Market Commentary: 2021 learn what’s being worth selling, and why, how equities are projected to perform for the remainder of 2021, and the prediction for 10-year Treasury Bond rates.
Inflation is a concern to today’s investors. We can’t blame them – there’s hasn’t been a huge inflationary spike in 30 years.
How do recent market performance and anticipation of inflation impact equities?
In the Stableford Market Commentary: March 2021, Justin Thomas offers a research-backed view of the market, along with the balance between inflation and equities.