August was another confusing month, closing with the S&P 500 up 7% despite a high level of market uncertainty. Near-urgent buying was driven by an extreme position in the options market. Discover other August indicators, and what they could mean for the remainder of the year – including why we at Stableford Capital like our holdings.
How are recent volatile activities – such as declines in the equity and fixed income markets, pandemics, civil unrest, politically polarized citizens, international discord – impacting market outlook? Stableford Capital’s leaders take the markets’ temperature and advise investors on what to look for.
As the dollar continues to slide – and gold prices rise, some strategists are warning about the threat of a debased currency. They cite the latest round of stimulus and fiscal policy measures, and point to gold as the best option for a reserve currency. Gold prices continue to surge, while the U.S. debates next steps for keeping the economy out of stagnation.
How are recent volatile activities – such as declines in the equity and fixed income markets, pandemics, civil unrest, politically polarized citizens, international discord – impacting market outlook? Stableford Capital’s leaders take the markets’ temperature and advise investors on what to look for, including how to find value investments. Learn more.
In Stableford strategies, technicians analyze fundamental and value factors to inform the entire portfolio picture. A good technician enhances both the fundamental and macro aspects of the investment management strategy. Similar to warning lights on your car’s dashboard, the technician focuses on confirming the narrative trends (dark dashboard), noting when the technical trends are no longer moving in unison with the consensus narrative (warning light).
Why the big equity bounce that seemingly ignores bad news from trade wars, protests, and civil unrest in May 2020? We’ve seen the bottom in economic data, so the news is just getting better from an earnings perspective. Equities are forward-looking, pricing off future expected earnings.
Stableford operates on a different investment philosophy from other financial advisory firms: adjusting based on market environment and client need. To do this we have to constantly assess risk and maintain open communication with clients – during both up and down markets. Stableford is not a manager of managers and the investment strategies are all proprietary.
After dropping 30% from the start of the year the low in March, the S&P 500 has rebounded 30% off the March 23 low, and nearly 13% in April to end down roughly 10% year-to-date. The 10 yr. US Treasury remained largely flat during April, closing the month with a yield of 0.64%.
We’re never happy with negative returns but we are happy when we are able to preserve your capital. On a relative basis, that is what we have done. The losses in our strategies are a fraction of the overall equities markets and a 60/40 mix of equities and fixed income. This is why we are proponents of the active approach to investing. It’s times like these when being prudent and risk-averse matters.
The S&P 500 declined 8.4% during February to close down 8% year-to-date and remains at similar levels through March 6. The US-Sino trade-détente and global-growth euphoria that began last September peaked during February and has been replaced with global contagion fears (double entendre).