Stableford Capital Insights

Things are going well, no doubt. But is all as well as it seems? Once again equities are very narrow, with a handful of large capitalization stocks leading the charge. Read the January Market Commentary for a detailed overview of the situation.

Federal spending was substantial in 2023, particularly late in the year. Job growth has largely centered around government and healthcare, not cyclical sectors that might indicate a path to future growth. Read the December Market Commentary for a detailed overview of the situation.

Tighter financial conditions are impacting both stocks and the real world where higher interest rates are impacting auto loans, credit cards and overall business conditions. Read the October Market Commentary for a detailed overview of the situation.

Despite a hot economy, two months of strong numbers and the potential for re-acceleration in inflation Fed Chair Jay Powell chose to ignore the unruly data points during the March Fed meeting presser. All this jawboning kept rates subdued during March. Ten-year U.S. Treasury yields fell 5 basis points.

The economy is performing better than expected by most measures. Equities reflect this. However, they are starting to feel a bit stretched on valuation, driven by the promise of “AI”. Read the February Market Commentary for a detailed overview of the situation.

The significant November rebound in equities stands in stark contrast to the disappointing earnings season and 5% rates that drove October lows. Read the November Market Commentary for a detailed overview of the situation.

After beginning the year on a strong note equity and bond prices fell during February as strong economic data quashed hopes of a rapid Fed pivot. Ten-year U.S. Treasury yields leapt 42 basis points to 3.92% in February following a strong January payroll report of 517,000 additions, far above the highest economist estimate. The February Market Commentary will help explain what is going on.

Have soft-landing expectations peaked? Equities fell 4.9% at the August low before rebounding to close down 1.9% for the month. It seems that expectations finally got so high that the market was unable to meet them. The August Market Commentary will help explain what is going on.

Ever feel like you are running really fast but not getting very far? April was that kind of month. After recovering from the banking kerfuffle in March, the S&P 500 moved in a much narrower range during April and eked out a 1.5% gain for the month. The April Market Commentary will help explain what is going on.

Banking woes pushed the 24/7 inflation watch to the back pages for the first time in a year. Financial stability fear is the first real push-back to the relentless Fed rates hikes, and it is having real impact. Early in March it seemed the Fed was on its way to re-accelerating to a 50 basis point increase. But the bank deposit crisis caused the Fed to slow in order to maintain financial stability. The March Market Commentary will help explain what is going on.