The significant November rebound in equities stands in stark contrast to the disappointing earnings season and 5% rates that drove October lows. Read the November Market Commentary for a detailed overview of the situation.
Tighter financial conditions are impacting both stocks and the real world where higher interest rates are impacting auto loans, credit cards and overall business conditions. Read the October Market Commentary for a detailed overview of the situation.
Have soft-landing expectations peaked? Equities fell 4.9% at the August low before rebounding to close down 1.9% for the month. It seems that expectations finally got so high that the market was unable to meet them. The August Market Commentary will help explain what is going on.
Ever feel like you are running really fast but not getting very far? April was that kind of month. After recovering from the banking kerfuffle in March, the S&P 500 moved in a much narrower range during April and eked out a 1.5% gain for the month. The April Market Commentary will help explain what is going on.
Banking woes pushed the 24/7 inflation watch to the back pages for the first time in a year. Financial stability fear is the first real push-back to the relentless Fed rates hikes, and it is having real impact. Early in March it seemed the Fed was on its way to re-accelerating to a 50 basis point increase. But the bank deposit crisis caused the Fed to slow in order to maintain financial stability. The March Market Commentary will help explain what is going on.
After beginning the year on a strong note equity and bond prices fell during February as strong economic data quashed hopes of a rapid Fed pivot. Ten-year U.S. Treasury yields leapt 42 basis points to 3.92% in February following a strong January payroll report of 517,000 additions, far above the highest economist estimate. The February Market Commentary will help explain what is going on.
Equities began the year strongly, moving up 6% in January as investors anticipated a more accommodative Fed and traders bought the most beaten down names of 2022. Part of the move was seasonal, as investors put new money to work after extensive tax loss sales of 2022. The January Market Commentary will help explain what is going on.
Markets haven’t believed the Fed all year. At every FOMC meeting Chair Powell seemingly surprises investors with Fed hawkishness. The same scene keeps repeating itself. But those days are long over; investors are now struggling to catch up with the Fed’s hawkish stance at every meeting. The December Market Commentary will help explain what is going on.
We’re never happy with negative returns but we are happy when we are able to preserve your capital. On a relative basis, that is what we have done. The losses in our strategies are a fraction of the overall equities markets and a 60/40 mix of equities and fixed income. This is why we are proponents of the active approach to investing. It’s times like these when being prudent and risk-averse matters.