Stableford Capital Insights

Things are going well, no doubt. But is all as well as it seems? Once again equities are very narrow, with a handful of large capitalization stocks leading the charge. Read the January Market Commentary for a detailed overview of the situation.

Federal spending was substantial in 2023, particularly late in the year. Job growth has largely centered around government and healthcare, not cyclical sectors that might indicate a path to future growth. Read the December Market Commentary for a detailed overview of the situation.

Tighter financial conditions are impacting both stocks and the real world where higher interest rates are impacting auto loans, credit cards and overall business conditions. Read the October Market Commentary for a detailed overview of the situation.

After a brutal September, the S&P 500 bounced 8% during October. With the heightened fears of the Liz Truss UK debacle in September, news could not get any worse—and it didn’t. When market sentiment and fear reach extreme levels, a constant stream of bad news is required to push indexes down further. In the absence of further unwelcome news, markets bounced. The October Market Commentary will try to help explain what is going on.

The Fed remained hawkish during the July meeting, but traders were having none of it, despite continued multi-decade highs in inflation. Yields on the US Treasury 10 Year fell 36 basis points during July as investors begin to price in an economic slowdown. Recall that the 10 Year was nearly 3.5% a month and a half ago. Bond managers have switched from inflation fear to recession fear. The July Market Commentary will try to help explain what is going on.

Equities rebound, defensive rotation under the index headline return and nominal rates increase in December. The December Stableford Marketing Commentary explains it and more.

What’s behind the bounce back of equities, the rise in nominal rates, and the gap between real rates and nominal rates? And, what does it mean for future investments and the economy? Are we in for strong growth or a slowdown? The October Stableford Marketing Commentary explains it and more.

Despite a hot economy, two months of strong numbers and the potential for re-acceleration in inflation Fed Chair Jay Powell chose to ignore the unruly data points during the March Fed meeting presser. All this jawboning kept rates subdued during March. Ten-year U.S. Treasury yields fell 5 basis points.

The economy is performing better than expected by most measures. Equities reflect this. However, they are starting to feel a bit stretched on valuation, driven by the promise of “AI”. Read the February Market Commentary for a detailed overview of the situation.

The significant November rebound in equities stands in stark contrast to the disappointing earnings season and 5% rates that drove October lows. Read the November Market Commentary for a detailed overview of the situation.