After a brutal September, the S&P 500 bounced 8% during October. With the heightened fears of the Liz Truss UK debacle in September, news could not get any worse—and it didn’t. When market sentiment and fear reach extreme levels, a constant stream of bad news is required to push indexes down further. In the absence of further unwelcome news, markets bounced. The October Market Commentary will try to help explain what is going on.
Interest rates reached levels last seen in 2010 following U.K. prime minister Liz Truss’ surprise deficit-widening budget (and associated borrowing requirements) forced bond sales by U.K. Pensions in order to meet margin calls. U.S. Treasury rates, already moving higher in September, were pushed to even higher levels as panic set in at U.K. pensions in search of liquid assets to unload quickly. The September Market Commentary will try to help explain what is going on.
Groupthink is incredibly powerful. If enough people believe something, will it come true? In the case of equity markets, yes—but only temporarily. Equity investors are slowly learning that the Fed must fulfill its inflation mandate for the first time in a generation. The Fed no longer has your back (as long as inflation persists)as it was previously. The August Market Commentary will try to help explain what is going on.
The Fed remained hawkish during the July meeting, but traders were having none of it, despite continued multi-decade highs in inflation. Yields on the US Treasury 10 Year fell 36 basis points during July as investors begin to price in an economic slowdown. Recall that the 10 Year was nearly 3.5% a month and a half ago. Bond managers have switched from inflation fear to recession fear. The July Market Commentary will try to help explain what is going on.
Continued Fed Hawkishness Drives Equities Lower and Rates Higher. In the face of rising inflation, the Fed turned increasingly hawkish, which pushed 10 Year US Treasury rates up seventeen basis points to 3.02% in June. While this was much lower than the 3.48% achieved in mid-month, the fear of continuing higher rates was enough to push equities down 8.8% in June. The June Market Commentary will walk you through the ups and downs and try to help explain what is going on.
Are 2022 earnings turning negative? Equites rebounded to close out May unchanged, rebounding from down 5.6% intra-month. The May Market Commentary will walk you through the ups and downs and try to help explain what is going on.
The wild ride continues with the markets rising and dropping. After jumping 8.6% from the lows of March the S&P 500 again reversed course and dropped another 8.8% in April to finish -13% year-to-date.
It’s been a wild ride with the markets dropping and rising. The March Market Commentary will walk you through the ups and downs and try to help explain what is going on.
The slide continues and then we have European conflict to add to the mix. But thankfully, markets have no capacity for empathy. Economic impacts are quickly priced in, and the market begins to look forward again. The Stableford Market Commentary, February 2022 looks at the market trends. Read more here.
Equities rebound, defensive rotation under the index headline return and nominal rates increase in December. The December Stableford Marketing Commentary explains it and more.