Stableford Capital Insights

After beginning the year on a strong note equity and bond prices fell during February as strong economic data quashed hopes of a rapid Fed pivot. Ten-year U.S. Treasury yields leapt 42 basis points to 3.92% in February following a strong January payroll report of 517,000 additions, far above the highest economist estimate. The February Market Commentary will help explain what is going on.

Have soft-landing expectations peaked? Equities fell 4.9% at the August low before rebounding to close down 1.9% for the month. It seems that expectations finally got so high that the market was unable to meet them. The August Market Commentary will help explain what is going on.

Second Half Kickoff—A dichotomy between rates and equities: Equities rose another 3% during July, driven by expectations of a Fed pause and lower inflation. The equity upswing is at odds with U.S. 10 Yr. Treasury rates, which increased during July. The July Market Commentary will help explain what is going on.

Mid-Year Checkup—What happened in the first half of 2023? The first half of 2023 was surprising because when the Fed has tightened this quickly in the past it has led to significant economic downturns due to a negative wealth effect. The June Market Commentary will help explain what is going on.

Is bad breadth unhealthy for equities? Equities were up a slight 0.2% in choppy trading during May. The bigger story is the spread between the S&P 500 and the equal weighted S&P 500. The May Market Commentary will help explain what is going on.

Ever feel like you are running really fast but not getting very far? April was that kind of month. After recovering from the banking kerfuffle in March, the S&P 500 moved in a much narrower range during April and eked out a 1.5% gain for the month. The April Market Commentary will help explain what is going on.

Banking woes pushed the 24/7 inflation watch to the back pages for the first time in a year. Financial stability fear is the first real push-back to the relentless Fed rates hikes, and it is having real impact. Early in March it seemed the Fed was on its way to re-accelerating to a 50 basis point increase. But the bank deposit crisis caused the Fed to slow in order to maintain financial stability. The March Market Commentary will help explain what is going on.

Equities began the year strongly, moving up 6% in January as investors anticipated a more accommodative Fed and traders bought the most beaten down names of 2022. Part of the move was seasonal, as investors put new money to work after extensive tax loss sales of 2022. The January Market Commentary will help explain what is going on.

The CPI report date 10- Year U.S. shows treasury yields fell an astounding 27 basis points as investors concluded that we’ve seen peak rates. In total, 10-Year U.S. treasury yields plunged a whopping 45 basis points to close out at 3.6% for the month. Meanwhile, equities jumped 5.4% for the month on the belief that lower rates would support higher valuations. The November Market Commentary will help explain what is going on.

Markets haven’t believed the Fed all year. At every FOMC meeting Chair Powell seemingly surprises investors with Fed hawkishness. The same scene keeps repeating itself. But those days are long over; investors are now struggling to catch up with the Fed’s hawkish stance at every meeting. The December Market Commentary will help explain what is going on.