Stableford Capital Insights

The S&P 500 increased 6.4% during December, driven by the US – China preliminary trade deal and continued Fed stealth Quantitative Easing. While some of the details still need to be worked out with China, there seems to be a détente for now. This break allows markets to view the world order through rose colored glasses.

The S&P 500 increased 3.4% during November on the hope that a trade deal with China would be signed and belief that the economy had bottomed. Investors were getting nearly euphoric, and measures of value were beginning to look stretched (though a slight correction at the beginning of December rectified some of this).

The S&P 500 increased 2% during October as investors began to believe that the economy is beginning to re-accelerate. This move off the recent October lows was propelled by diminishing fears of recession and trade wars. Recent high frequency economic survey data has recently begun to turn upward, and the US – China trade war has moved toward (at least a temporary) détente.

After a volatile August, the S&P 500 increased 1.3% during September as fears of the global slowdown began to dissipate. The respite may be short lived however, as early October ISM surveys indicate a contraction in the manufacturing side of the economy. The key question from here is whether the contraction will spread from the relatively small manufacturing component (approximately 10%) to the much larger services side of the US economy.

The S&P 500 fell 1.8 % during a volatile August as the Federal Reserve’s -25 basis point move on July 31 proved too hawkish versus expectations. Yields on the 10 Yr US Treasury fell 50 basis points to 1.5% in August as well.

What if one person or investment firm could handle all of your family’s finances and assets? Paying household employees, accounting for taxes, managing assets, planning for retirement and preparing for wealth transfer… all done for you with your best interests at top of mind. Ultra high net worth investors should consider a family office to aid in aligning financial interests while working towards a clear goal.

The S&P 500 increased 2.5% in July, but the real fireworks occurred after the Fed meeting July 31 through August 5. During that 4 day period the market was down 5.6%. Fixed Income had similar gyrations, with yields on the US 10 Yr Treasury falling 30 basis points from July 31 to 1.71% on August 5, after holding relatively stable for July