Ever feel like you are running really fast but not getting very far? April was that kind of month. After recovering from the banking kerfuffle in March, the S&P 500 moved in a much narrower range during April and eked out a 1.5% gain for the month. The April Market Commentary will help explain what is going on.
Banking woes pushed the 24/7 inflation watch to the back pages for the first time in a year. Financial stability fear is the first real push-back to the relentless Fed rates hikes, and it is having real impact. Early in March it seemed the Fed was on its way to re-accelerating to a 50 basis point increase. But the bank deposit crisis caused the Fed to slow in order to maintain financial stability. The March Market Commentary will help explain what is going on.
After beginning the year on a strong note equity and bond prices fell during February as strong economic data quashed hopes of a rapid Fed pivot. Ten-year U.S. Treasury yields leapt 42 basis points to 3.92% in February following a strong January payroll report of 517,000 additions, far above the highest economist estimate. The February Market Commentary will help explain what is going on.
Equities began the year strongly, moving up 6% in January as investors anticipated a more accommodative Fed and traders bought the most beaten down names of 2022. Part of the move was seasonal, as investors put new money to work after extensive tax loss sales of 2022. The January Market Commentary will help explain what is going on.
Markets haven’t believed the Fed all year. At every FOMC meeting Chair Powell seemingly surprises investors with Fed hawkishness. The same scene keeps repeating itself. But those days are long over; investors are now struggling to catch up with the Fed’s hawkish stance at every meeting. The December Market Commentary will help explain what is going on.
The CPI report date 10- Year U.S. shows treasury yields fell an astounding 27 basis points as investors concluded that we’ve seen peak rates. In total, 10-Year U.S. treasury yields plunged a whopping 45 basis points to close out at 3.6% for the month. Meanwhile, equities jumped 5.4% for the month on the belief that lower rates would support higher valuations. The November Market Commentary will help explain what is going on.
After a brutal September, the S&P 500 bounced 8% during October. With the heightened fears of the Liz Truss UK debacle in September, news could not get any worse—and it didn’t. When market sentiment and fear reach extreme levels, a constant stream of bad news is required to push indexes down further. In the absence of further unwelcome news, markets bounced. The October Market Commentary will try to help explain what is going on.
Interest rates reached levels last seen in 2010 following U.K. prime minister Liz Truss’ surprise deficit-widening budget (and associated borrowing requirements) forced bond sales by U.K. Pensions in order to meet margin calls. U.S. Treasury rates, already moving higher in September, were pushed to even higher levels as panic set in at U.K. pensions in search of liquid assets to unload quickly. The September Market Commentary will try to help explain what is going on.
Groupthink is incredibly powerful. If enough people believe something, will it come true? In the case of equity markets, yes—but only temporarily. Equity investors are slowly learning that the Fed must fulfill its inflation mandate for the first time in a generation. The Fed no longer has your back (as long as inflation persists)as it was previously. The August Market Commentary will try to help explain what is going on.
The Fed remained hawkish during the July meeting, but traders were having none of it, despite continued multi-decade highs in inflation. Yields on the US Treasury 10 Year fell 36 basis points during July as investors begin to price in an economic slowdown. Recall that the 10 Year was nearly 3.5% a month and a half ago. Bond managers have switched from inflation fear to recession fear. The July Market Commentary will try to help explain what is going on.
