Fears of Global Slowdown Dissipate?
After a volatile August, the S&P 500 increased 1.3% during September as fears of the global slowdown began to dissipate (Figure 1).
The respite may be short lived however, as early October ISM surveys indicate a contraction in the manufacturing side of the economy. The key question from here is whether the contraction will spread from the relatively small manufacturing component (approximately 10%) to the much larger services side of the US economy.
Rebound in September
Yields on the US 10 Yr., which have been falling all year in anticipation of slowing growth, rebounded during September from 1.5% to 1.67% (Figure 2). Part of this rebound is due to more balanced Fed rhetoric, which brings into question further rate reductions. However, the US 10 Yr. has fallen again in early October to 1.54% as more macroeconomic surveys indicate deceleration.
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This market commentary was written and produced by Stableford Capital, LLC. Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested in directly. The views stated in this letter are not necessarily the opinion of any other named entity and should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
S&P 500 INDEX: The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure the performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.