The S&P 500 declined 1.9% during January, though it hit an all-time high on January 22 and has bounced to similar levels as of February 5. The run-up to all-time highs is largely explained by the Fed’s stealth Quantitative Easing (QE) program, as well as anticipation of better economic conditions following the détente in the US-Sino trade war.
The S&P 500 increased 6.4% during December, driven by the US – China preliminary trade deal and continued Fed stealth Quantitative Easing. While some of the details still need to be worked out with China, there seems to be a détente for now. This break allows markets to view the world order through rose colored glasses.
The S&P 500 increased 3.4% during November on the hope that a trade deal with China would be signed and belief that the economy had bottomed. Investors were getting nearly euphoric, and measures of value were beginning to look stretched (though a slight correction at the beginning of December rectified some of this).
The S&P 500 increased 2% during October as investors began to believe that the economy is beginning to re-accelerate. This move off the recent October lows was propelled by diminishing fears of recession and trade wars. Recent high frequency economic survey data has recently begun to turn upward, and the US – China trade war has moved toward (at least a temporary) détente.
After a volatile August, the S&P 500 increased 1.3% during September as fears of the global slowdown began to dissipate. The respite may be short lived however, as early October ISM surveys indicate a contraction in the manufacturing side of the economy. The key question from here is whether the contraction will spread from the relatively small manufacturing component (approximately 10%) to the much larger services side of the US economy.
The S&P 500 fell 1.8 % during a volatile August as the Federal Reserve’s -25 basis point move on July 31 proved too hawkish versus expectations. Yields on the 10 Yr US Treasury fell 50 basis points to 1.5% in August as well.
The S&P 500 increased 2.5% in July, but the real fireworks occurred after the Fed meeting July 31 through August 5. During that 4 day period the market was down 5.6%. Fixed Income had similar gyrations, with yields on the US 10 Yr Treasury falling 30 basis points from July 31 to 1.71% on August 5, after holding relatively stable for July
The complexity theory argues that in natural systems, resilience increases as the systems become more complex. But for manufactured systems, becoming complicated (like our economy and globalization) means less resilience. The summer of 2019 is chock full of threats to the stability of our economy; let’s review them and go over suggestions on how to weather these bond and stock market trends.
The S&P 500 increased 7% in June, after dropping nearly the same amount in May. A spectacular turnaround driven by yet more easy money signals from the Fed. It sure is nice, if a bit excessive given the US is near full employment and inflation looks fine. As it stands now, the S&P 500 is up 18.5% through June.
The S&P 500 fell 6.6% May, after topping out at an all-time high on April 30. It was up ~25% off the December 2018 lows, and 17% year to date at the high. In particular, the US economy and corporate earnings were beginning to slow. This became apparent during May as several economic indicators and economists’ models began to show the deceleration. As usual, the bond market was the first to sniff out the problem.
